2015年雲端運算流量將達到1.6 ZB

許多人稱去年(2010)是雲端運算元年,所有媒體都鋪天蓋地爭相報導,今年依舊熱度不減。再幾天就邁入2012,大家應該都看過不少科技趨勢預測或報導,相信雲端運算必占有一定的版面才是。Cisco 發佈的 Global Cloud Index(2010-2015) 也針對未來幾內以雲端運算為基礎的網路流量成長及趨勢做了預測。

先看看影片


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D34G30lWgg8

幾個重點:
Global data center traffic:

  • Annual global data center IP traffic will reach 4.8 zettabytes by the end of 2015. In 2015, global data center IP traffic will reach 402 exabytes per month.
  • Global data center IP traffic will increase fourfold over the next 5 years. Overall, data center IP traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33 percent from 2010 to 2015.

    data center IP traffic growth

Data center virtualization and cloud computing transition:

  • The number of workloads per installed traditional server will increase from 1.4 in 2010 to 2.0 in 2015.
  • The number of workloads per installed cloud server will increase from 3.5 in 2010 to 7.8 in 2015.
  • By 2014, more than 50 percent of all workloads will be processed in the cloud.

Global cloud traffic:

  • Annual global cloud IP traffic will reach 1.6 zettabytes by the end of 2015. In 2015, global cloud IP traffic will reach 133 exabytes per month.
  • Global cloud IP traffic will increase twelvefold over the next 5 years. Overall, cloud IP traffic will grow at a CAGR of 66 percent from 2010 to 2015.

    Cloud Data Center Traffic Growth
  • Global cloud IP traffic will account for more than one-third (34 percent) of total data center traffic by 2015.

Regional cloud readiness:

  • North America and Western Europe lead in broadband access (fixed and mobile). Asia Pacific leads in the number of subscribers due to the region’s large population.
  • Western Europe leads in fixed average download speeds of 12.2 Mbps, followed by Central and Eastern Europe with 9.4 Mbps, making these regions the most cloud ready from a download speed perspective.
  • Western Europe and Central and Eastern Europe lead in average fixed upload speeds of 5.9 Mbps and 5.7 Mbps, respectively, making these regions the most cloud ready from an upload speed perspective.
  • Western Europe and North America lead in average fixed latencies with 68 ms and 75 ms respectively, making these regions the most cloud ready from a latency perspective.

對這些容量的計算可以參考下圖
Multiples of bytes

再看下面這張圖就更明白了:
Cisco Growth of the Cloud

延伸閱讀:
Cisco Systems - Cloud Index
Campus Technology - Cloud Computing Traffic Could Reach 1.6 Zettabytes Annually by 2015
STPI - 市場報導:2015年雲端運算流量將達到1.6 ZB

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